Covid Comments

Everyone has something to say about Covid. The everlasting question is who to believe. What you read here is I hope believable. First off I feel the NZ government is doing a creditable job – on most fronts but not all. More about that later.

It would not matter which party was in power as it would be guided by the available science. We cannot expect all of our politicians of whatever stripe to be super scientists. All of the arguments going around today seem to centre on personalities and whether Labour is using the issue for its own political advantage. It is inescapable that anything a government does will always be viewed as being politically motivated.

I am tiring of the way so many commentators are using the issue to mount personal attacks on Jacinda Ardern, Chris Hipkins and Ashley Bloomfield. Richard Prebble out of the NZ Herald has not missed a beat. Covid is a first-time experience for all of us. Don’t get me wrong. I do have many other real problems with this government.

The Covid issue could be likened to what went on in wartime. My history lessons tell me NZ had a wartime cabinet (1939-45) drawn from both sides of the house. Last year a bi-partisan committee was established to recommend on Covid measures. How effective was it? I don’t know. Maybe we should ask the butchers and fish shops who are currently closed down. This time around the committee seems to have been side lined and Parliament is not sitting. Maybe some critics could have a point about political opportunism. Wait and see.

Has NZ been doing a reasonable job on most fronts? I would go for a rating of six or seven out of ten, and no more than seven. Firstly I would want to compare NZ to some others around the globe. OK all countries have differing cultures, needs and health systems. My news radar has picked up on a few things. Canada is different province by province. European countries and the UK produce a startling mixture of results. The USA presents itself as almost a basket case brought about by you know who.

One Canadian province with fewer people than NZ had a much higher death rate. Alberta has had 2,343 deaths over the whole pandemic. Alberta has a population of about 4.5million. In an overall comparison NZ’s numbers look much better. As of today however, NZ vaccination numbers are much lower at 22% vs Alberta’s 63%. A lot of these numbers are on Google and the newspaper websites. So what is happening with NZ’s vaccination program? We have heard a lot of promises, hence my low rating. And as for so many other NZ issues, regardless of which party, we will not be told everything.     

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/alberta-leaders-mum-as-covid-19-fourth-wave-surges

European countries and the UK produce a startling mixture of results. A graphic on the Sunday Telegraph (UK, 22nd Aug) details deaths per million of population. I don’t have a link but I have checked that the numbers are transcribed correctly. Smaller populations performed much better than the larger countries Italy, UK, Spain.

In deaths per million of population Germany (with many more millions of population than the UK) sat on 1,097 vs UK on 1,938. Italy fared worst at 2,126 – which could convert roughly to 128,000 deaths. The smaller countries, Norway, Denmark, Finland had much lower death rates but still exceeded NZ’s death rate. All of those death rates would relate solely to lockdown policies, community buy in, and timing. Sweden as an outlier did not have a lockdown – deaths per million were 1,452.

On my numbers NZ has performed well enough to deserve some international recognition. Like many others though I do not want to start recommending names for the honours list yet. My name will certainly not be going forward. The game is far from over and we need urgent answers on the vaccination program and on plans for reopening borders.

About the USA. I have just finished reading Michael Lewis’ book The Premonition. There are a lot of reviews out there. I won’t spoil it for anyone who wants to read it. Briefly it is the story of how teams of experts over a number of years well before Covid, and then during it, tried and tried to alert the USA and its governance systems to the need to actually manage a pandemic. A takeaway for me was that we should be grateful for the expertise coming out of the USA, but this book reveals all of the intertwined corporate and political obstacles that expertise faces. A good point is that the book barely mentions Trump and all of his trouble making. Well written and easy reading.

My wife and I have had our two vaccine shots. No immediate ill effects. Next thing to wait for is do we need regular annual top ups. At our vaccine station – our GP’s rooms – everything was well organised, no hassles.

26th Aug 2021

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